Survivor Amateur Edgic, Winners at War, Episode 11

I'm not rewatching the fucking episode... Even w/ Coronavirus, and even w/ this season being mostly fantastic, I got better things to do.  So here's a very hasty, probably very inaccurate Edgic based on a single viewing I did half a week ago.

Merged Tribe

Michele- UTR2 - Yeesh.  Michele's slide under the radar continues.  As the story of her and Nick is eclipsed by the story of Tony and... uhh... Tony... Michele's narrative of a "lesser" winner becoming a player to be reckoned with just can't find any air.  Her alliance with Jeremy, noted by other players, is perhaps tellingly never seen by us viewers, and when Tony went to make his big blindside move, it might be revealing that Jeremy was considered his liason, not Michele.  Yikes.
Nick - UTR2- Though Nick got in a funny comment about being called"Vampire Donathan" (which is totally dead on!), he still was underused in this episode.  He increasingly seems like a tool used by other, better players to accomplish their ends (see how quickly and easily he acceded to Tony's Fire Token plan).  With no longstanding, meaningful alliances, I think it's only a matter of time before Nick is deemed... Well, a tool... Who has lost his usefulness.
Kim - CP2- Kim has become the strategic force contra-Tony in "Winners at War," and I suspect their rivarly, which has been hinted at in previous episodes, will come to a head at some point this season.   From humble beginnings, she has become a player we are meant to view as a scrappy, intelligent underdog.  I think she's got the second best chance of winning, but I don't think she's had enough content to pull off a final upset.
Denise- MOR2- We got some decent strategy talk from Denise here, who is playing double agent along with Kim.  Still, she is routinely shown to be a player in league with other players, not one who is changing the flow of the game.  She's likeable and smart and she looks like she could kick your ass.  But she's not gonna win this thing, no way.
Jeremy- CP3- Jeremy was the swingiest of swing votes this episode, and we got a lot of strategy talk out of him as he tried to figure out... well, Tony.  He's a consistently engaging narrator, and clearly viewed as a threat-- the early part of the episode highlighted his advantage-play at the last Tribal Council, as well as his burgeoning rivalry with Ben.  Still, it's tough to say what's driving him, or where his narrative is going.  At this point he seems like just another "meat shield" in the story of another player...
Tony- CPP5- Tony turned in one of the greatest single-episode performances of Survivor I've ever seen.  He thoroughly dominated this episode, finding an immunity idol, being "extorted" by Parvati and Natalie (and somehow finding a way to extort his alliance members to help him out), winning the immunity challenge (having narrowly escaped being denied a chance to participate), and successfully pulling off a truly devastating blindside.  Throughout it all, Tony seemed very much in control of the situation, making his moves with characteristic energy but also, an impressive amount of savvy and social play.   He's the clear winner edit at this point, but now he's sure to have a very big target on his back.
Sarah- MORN2- Another odd episode for Sarah.  Again, she's contrasted with Tony, and again, she seems to get a slightly negative coloring.  Her fashion show as fun, but it was predicated on some perhaps overinflated (though probably tongue-in-cheek) ideas about herself.  Like her advantage-give to Nick, it again showed her as a played who's thinking about things other than "the game": in Survivor, this attitude is death.
Sophie- MOR1- Sophie's compelling but finally underedited run ends here, when Tony, who recognizes game when he sees it, singlehandedly decides to take her out.  This episode largely left out Sophie's voice, perhaps to intensify the effect of the (rather shocking) blindside.  She had a nice, graceful finish though.  Her story of a "lower tier" winner commanding respect from others and making a nice go of it got a fitting conclusion.
Ben- UTRN2- I got a distinctively negative tone from Ben here, who's paranoia came to a head in conversations with the more rational, more thoughtful Jeremy, and who was caught making a very damning (though accurate, if you consider inflation) side-comment about how a million dollars just doesn't get you far any more.  Shades of "Obama's just gonna tax it anyway" baseball man... Never, ever a good look to be criticizing the game itself.  Hate the players, not the game, Ben!

EOE
Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan, Rob, Parvati, Yul, Wendell, Adam, Tyson
A curious trip to the Edge, in which Tyson, in conversation with Wendell, claims that losing the game "does things" to people, making a point to say that Adam is going to take it hard.  Why single out Adam for further humiliation?  A very interesting, possibly loaded choice.  Parvati and Natalie also found an advantage, which they used against Tony.  Not sure if this reflects anything about Parvati or Natalie's respective edits.

Survivor Amateur Edgic, Winners at War, Episode 10

I'm not rewatching the fucking episode... Even w/ Coronavirus, and even w/ this season being mostly fantastic, I got better things to do.  So here's a very hasty, probably very inaccurate Edgic based on a single viewing I did half a week ago.  Half of episode 10 was devoted to an epic-length Loved Ones Visit.  It was delightful.  It didn't tell us much about strategy, though I think it wrapped up at least one of this season's smaller storylines.

Merged Tribe

Michele- MOR2 - We keep checking in with Michele, but maybe not enough?  I'm pretty sure she was the one who flipped against the Kim alliance, thereby sending Tyson home... But we didn't get any insight as to why Michele might have done this.  She's got a great underdog story going, but it does seem to have enough "oomph."
Nick - UTR2- Nick is kinda like Michele but without the personality.  He's sorta like mediocre gamebot this time.  That's all I'm gonna say for now, whoops.
Kim - CP3- Kim's idol play was curious, and she was given a line about playing idols for others that was not undermined as foolish.  We're supposed to view Kim as a dynamic, capable player.  Her gambit didn't work out this time, but she is nevertheless building a resume.  She'll be considered a threat sooner than not.
Denise- UTR2- Denise's edit seems to be petering out, too.  Sad!  Her alliance with Adam is done, and while her partnership with Kim seems to be substantial, Kim is increasingly the dominant force in it.  Ever since her big play against Sandra, Denise has lingered in the background.  She could roar back for a dramatic finish... But I'm skeptical.
Jeremy- MOR3- Jeremy got another decent episode, but nothing great.  His edit seems like a milder, less human, less nuanced version of Tony's: a big threat playing down his ability, making semi-good moves, but never really seeming in control of the game.  Now that he's played his advantage (and thereby turned his alliance members against him?) I can't imagine his plot extends much further into this season.
Tony- CPP3- Wild, wacky Tony again portrayed as a smart, reasonable player.  The "advice" he gives to other players (she is talk with Sarah this ep, and his talk with Sarah last ep) never seems condescending, and he always make an effort to be polite and respectful, even as he develops a cunning strategy.  His Loved Ones visit seemed notable to me and to Probst, who claimed to see "another side" of Tony: the human side.  Tony is re-inventing himself this season and it's led to Edgic dominance thus far.  I still think he's got a good chance to win this thing.
Sarah- MORN2- Weird things are happening with Sarah's edit.  Her threat level has increased, meaning other players are less likely to work with her... And the producers are backing up these other players' decisions.  She's increasingly coming off as a rash, sort of heedless person, being contrasted every step of the way with her cop partner Tony.
Sophie- UTR2- Sophie seems to be getting a "Victoria edit" (s38).  She appears to command respects from her tribemates, just not from the camera.  She's not getting the testimonials she needs to make a deep run, even if her game is strategically sound (I think she's always on the right side of votes?).  I think she'll be one of the first boots in the final episode.
Ben- CP2- Ben again with another visible, notable performance, but it's tough to gauge... to what purpose?  The only consistent threads I'm seeing with Ben's play are (1) his efforts to better his social game (though we haven't seem him mention that in at least four episodes) and (2) frantic paranoia.  #2 doesn't usually mean Edgic success.
Tyson- MORP3- Tyson had the cutest and most heartbreaking Loved Ones visit, as we might have expected give the amount of content this season has reserved for talk about Tyson's Loved Ones.  Now that that subplot is done, is it really a surprise that he was voted out this episode, and with such little strategic fanfare (at least from him)?  It sucks because he rules, but I think it's fair to say that Tyson's finished for good this time.

EOE
Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan, Rob, Parvati, Yul, Wendell, Adam
Good to see the Loved Ones Visit here.  There was something especially powerful about Adam's testimonial... And while it seems improbable that he will be able to claw his way back into the game, he still seems like he'll be playing a role in the rest of the season.  Highly doubtful the next EOE-returnee gets to FTC, ala Chris in season 38.

Survivor Amateur Edgic, Winners at War, Episode 9

I actually missed half of this one while on a birthday zoom call.

So let's just cancel it for this week, eh?

A few notes:

I think Adam would get a CP4.  He took a big, funny gamble and it didn't pay off.  He's been a huge presence this season, alternating between CP and OTT in every episode.  He's been undermined a ton by the edit, but for some reason I don't think his journey ends here.

Ben got a distinctly N tone.  MORN2?  He looked a lot like Adam (paranoid, scrambling, "not great at Survivor") but less nice.  I think he'll be leaving soon.

Tony is still my winner pick.  He's created the terms for this season and is quietly dictating the gameplay.  He told off Adam in a way that was not excessively mean, just righteous (i.e. he spoke for all of us).

The target has moved to Sarah.  She seems increasingly like the player-to-beat, at least as the Tribe understands it... Which might dim her winning prospects, a bit.

More good play from Tyson.

If Denise was gonna win, she'd be given many more chances to speak.  Everybody loves Denise.  She's got a resume.  That we're not hearing from her is disturbing.

Michele what's happening?

Nick seems like a player for this stretch/subplot of the season, but he's been given no personal content.  I think he'll be swept out a episode before or after Benny boy.

Jeremy is playing well, but too quietly for my liking.  Starting to think of Sophie this way, too.  And maybe Kim?

Survivor Amateur Edgic: Winners at War, Episode 8

I'm not rewatching the fucking episode... Even w/ Coronavirus, and even w/ this season being mostly fantastic, I got better things to do.  So here's a very hasty, probably very inaccurate Edgic based on a single viewing I did almost a week ago.  I just woke up.

Merged Tribe

Michele- UTR3- Uh oh.  A curiously reserved, quiet edit for Michele in a crucial merge episode.  She's been a big character so far, but her story has been largely about her "redemption," not her shot at winning.  With Wendell out (weird choice of ally!), will she be next to go?  Her narrative might not have legs beyond the Human Toothpick.
Nick - MOR3- Lots of screen time for Nick here, but not a lot of strategy or personal content.  He is considered a threat, and a weasel, and a player who just "shows up" at strange time (cue hilarious montage, which didn't necessarily make Nick look bad... just more a "guy" than a mastermind).
Wendell- MOR2 - I didn't expect for Wendell to go home this episode... It didn't feel like his time.  Wendell has been the closest thing to a true villain this season has had, and this MOR conclusion almost wanted to remind us that "hey, he's actually not that bad of a guy."  Oh well.
Kim - MOR2 - Kim still getting that good strategy talk, but it's still hard to locate where she is, alliance-wise.  I'm thinking she becomes important in a subplot down the line, but doesn't win.
Denise- UTR3 - A curious merge edit for Denise.  She's been given full credit for taking out Sandra, which gives her a "resume" and has put her next on the chopping block.  (Ungrateful bastards!)  You would expect to hear a bit more from her about all of this (she even won the immunity necklace!), but all of the talk about her place in the game came secondhand.  This is troubling.  I'm wondering if her Winners narrative is essentially done.
Jeremy- CP1 - Jeremy shown as a string-puller this episode, though his string-pulling didn't really work, now did it?  He's got a lot of advantages and has never shown to be exactly out of the loop.  But aligning yourself with Wendell... now out of the game... is that something winners do?  I suspect the target will shift to Jeremy sooner rather than later.
Tony- CP2- Good merge for Tony.  It's important for him not to be too big and too loud and Too Tony right now, and he avoided that, while still giving the camera and his tribemates and Jeff a taste of where he's at and how he's feeling.  He's showing an impressive ability to generate new alliances on the fly.  I still think he makes a deep run... He's probably one of three major winner candidates at the moment.
Sarah- CP2- Given that Sarah was not part of the strategy discussion, did not win immunity, and had no major storylines coming into the merge, this seemed like the way she'd want her edit to go.  We're constantly checking-in with her, and she's always got a good read on the game.  It's her and Tony and Sophie who I consider the three winner candidates.  Oh wait... forgot about one more guy at the end.
Sophie- UTR2- This was not a strong as episode as it was for Sarah.  I'm haunted by Wendell's comment that Sophie is "playing the game," though.  Is he the only one who realizes just what a strategic force this seemingly quiet and unassuming player is?  There's a lot of subtle things going on with Sophie's edit that I think make for a deep run, even if this merge episode didn't have the amount of content she might like.
Ben- CP2- Ben got the first post-merge testimonial, and he seemed to be involved in every strategic discussion prior to tribal.  He got some fun secondhand content from Adam, but at the moment Ben is edited to be the savvier player.  No one seems to notice how seamlessly Ben seems to integrate into these strategic situations (which contrasts well with Adam).  It's tricky to imagine where he might go, especially after his rough start, getting owned by Rob... Though now I'm starting to think that was more an "establish Rob's threat level" scene than a "diminish Ben's game."
Adam- CPN3- Up-and-down Adam!  Again with the paranoia, but again, not fully unjustified!  Folks seems to want to work with him, until they don't.  It's a spastic edit, and I thought it had a slightly negative tone here: we're made to question the guy's decisions and attitude.  He still seems like a complex, major character though who I think we can expect in the finale.
Tyson!- CPP3- Some truly positive, borderline corny content for Tyson, who got the EOE comeback complete with strings and rapturous celebration from his newfound tribe.  You really couldn't have put together a more stirring and promising episode from a returnee: he's found a way to be a threat in testimonials and a player people "want to work with" in conversations.  Definitely a dark horse winner candidate right now.  (My reservations have less to do with his edit and more to do with how dumb these people would have to be to sit Tyson in front of THAT jury.)

EOE
Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan, Tyson, Rob, Parvati, Yul
Rob got some good strategic content-- much more than Natalie, who made the exact same fire token move.  I imagine a lot of that was just to drum up suspense for his final showdown with Tyson.